"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that if your book offers "if/reverses," you can play those instead of parlays. Some of you may not learn how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, together with the situations where each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it appears like. Without a doubt Team A and IF it wins you then place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a type of "if" bet in which you bet on the initial team, and when it wins without a doubt double on the next team. With a genuine "if" bet, rather than betting double on the second team, you bet an equal amount on the second team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and secure the existing line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you intend to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can also be made on two games kicking off at the same time. The bookmaker will wait until the first game has ended. If the initial game wins, he will put the same amount on the next game though it was already played.
Although an "if" bet is actually two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the second bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the second bet can't be cancelled, even if the next game has not gone off yet. If the initial game wins, you will have action on the second game. For that reason, there's less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games you bet overlap in time, however, the only method to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Needless to say, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the second game bet isn't an issue. It should be noted, that when the two games start at different times, most books will not allow you to complete the next game later. You must designate both teams once you make the bet.
You may make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I would like to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the next team. No matter whether the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 when you lose on the initial team. If the first team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the second team. In that case, if the next team loses, your total loss will be just the $10 of vig on the split of both teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" would be $110, and the maximum win will be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, rather than just $10 of vig, every time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can plainly see, it matters a good deal which game you put first in an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. If you split but the loser may be the second team in the bet, you then only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty due to the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and then create a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The next bet would put Team B first and Team A second. This type of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You merely tell the clerk you intend to bet a "reverse," the two teams, and the total amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the identical to if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the initial "if bet, and then $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. The two "if" bets together result in a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also be the same as in the event that you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You'll lose $55 on each of the bets for a total maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs once the teams split. Instead of losing $110 when the first team loses and the next wins, and $10 once the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split no matter which team wins and which loses. It computes in this manner. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the initial combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you'll win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, producing a net loss on the next mix of $5 vig. The loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet offers you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you'll lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the second combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We've accomplished this smaller loss of $60 instead of $110 when the first team loses with no reduction in the win when both teams win. In both the single $110 "if" bet and the two reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 rather than $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it does have the advantage of making the chance more predictable, and avoiding the worry as to which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations provide you with a headache, skip them and simply write down the guidelines. I'll summarize the rules in an easy to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the overall rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, if you can win a lot more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you cannot consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams will save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting on https://typhu88top.com/ should not be made dependent on whether you win another. On the other hand, for the bettor who has a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the initial team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the point that he could be not betting the next game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets reduce the amount of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Whatever keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Remember that the next time someone lets you know that the best way to win would be to bet fewer games. A smart winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" workout exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, you can find exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by successful with a positive expectation in mere two circumstances::
If you find no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I can think of you have no other choice is if you are the very best man at your friend's wedding, you're waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of your tux and that means you left it in the automobile, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account without credit line, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you prefer two games which overlap in time, you pull out your trusty cell 5 minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you make an effort to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
Because the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If that's the case, hold your head up high, put a smile on your face, search for the silver lining, and create a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Needless to say you could bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is an effective substitute for the parlay for anyone who is winner.
For the winner, the best method is straight betting. Regarding co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, you will find a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the benefit of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets which have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the truth that we make the second bet only IF among the propositions wins.
It could do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favourite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig regardless of how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when among our combinations comes in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when making co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when among our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or over comes in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 as the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" includes a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay includes a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it really is much more likely that the overall game will go over the comparatively low total, and if the favorite fails to cover the high spread, it is more likely that the game will beneath the total. As we have already seen, when you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The actual probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines privately and total are one to the other, but the fact that they are co-dependent gives us a positive expectation.
The point where the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet compared to the parlay when making our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is simply not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When coming up with two combinations, you have two chances to win. You merely need to win one out of your two. Each one of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the opportunity of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we need is really a 72% probability that when, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the game will go over the total 53 � at the very least 72% of that time period as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point away from a win. A BC cover will result in an over 72% of that time period is not an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
As compared to a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a total increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the results split for a complete increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."